“Man should be either crushed or caressed”

by Prof. Abdirizak  Hassan
Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Somalia has been in a political limbo much of the past two decades on whims of these fundamental and structural problems:

1.      No true winner in the civil-war

2.      Lack of true reconciliation

3.      Lack of a political will to compromise

In this short piece, I will try to decipher and comment on the biggest blockades in the ever shifting sand of Somali zigzag politics, and suggest some creative solutions to this daunting challenge.

The 30 year-old Southern Sudan civil-war can serve as a true contrast to that of Somali current situation. The Sudan government couldn’t win the war against the Southern People Liberation Army (SPLA), and at the same time was unwilling to compromise, until two years ago when they realized they had to comprise, and succumb to the demands of the SPLA, which brought an end to the longest civil-war in Africa, and return stability to the battle scared people. Since Somalis were, and still are, unwilling to compromise, they are under no pressure to do so. As a result, I don’t foresee any scenario in which they could sit and work-out some solution.

You may ask why a rich man in the Bakara Market would give up his illegally acquired wealth, abide and conform to a rule of law, while he has been a true libertarian all his life. The unknown peace conferences held for the Somalis could provide a true back-drop for the uncompromising nature of the Somali people. Yet, the so-called International Community will never learn different methodology to solve this acute situation or adapt to the Somali nature. In Somali view, compromise is a sign of weakness, and a poor quality for leaders to acquire. If a warlord or a head-figure compromise, he will be out-cast, labeled as a sell-out, and deemed unfit to lead the clan interest. This “all or nothing” is inheritant to the Somali nomadic culture, and the lack of political history exacerbate the already difficulty situation.

Another clear contrast is that of the World War II in the defeat of Germany and her axis power. The victorious Allied Nations, led by the American forces, forced Germany to accept extremely harsh terms in avoidance of repeating the same mistakes, and to promote endured peace. It would have been close to impossible to achieve peace in Europe and Japan without crushing and dismantling Germany or  dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan ( The goal was to demonstrate American dominance around the world). It ensured a new world order in which one side clearly won the war, implemented and enforced its agenda on the losers at their own detriment. In the case of Somalia, as mentioned above, there were no winners, and this may be due to the tribal nature of the civil-war or the inability of group to dominate and defeat others. The Islamic Courts Union that captured and controlled most of the Southern Somalia for brief six months period could be the only group that came close to dominate and subjugate all other factions but due to their political infancy coupled with Ethiopian invasion they weren’t successful in implementing their agenda.

Furthermore, the Tanzanian-experience in Uganda in which Tanzania invaded Uganda to topple “unfriendly and repressive” regime and installed western backed administration couldn’t be duplicated in Somalia. In this particular case, Tanzania was perceived as honest broker and there were no strong interested groups that were willing to die and defend the old-regime. However, when Ethiopia invaded Somalia with the pretext of combating “terrorism” while it has been terrorizing the Somali people through proxy brutal warlords, it ignited nationalist furor and become the common denominator that unites mostly divided Somalis. This bad experiment crushed any future hope or illusion that an outside force could be used to subjugate the Somali people.

 Somalia has defied all the above scenarios and baffled most of political analysts, strategists, and commentators. In the below few paragraphs, I would argue another scenario that could proof reasonable and suitable for the Somali culture and may solve the never ending misery, anarchy, and humiliation in Somalia.

From the collapse of the State of Somalia, Ethiopia has been supplying limited arms and ammunitions to various warring factions at equal ration in order to keep the balance power. It always made sure one faction doesn’t dominate the situation. What we need is the reversal of the Ethiopian practice and to tip the balance of power by giving proportionally higher power to one group that can defeat its opponents with greater vengeance. Make no mistake, I am not advocating for one group, but what I am asking is giving one group the upper hand so it can eliminate all others groups. The winner can dominate and set the course of Somali history and political agenda. You may ask how do we achieve this?

The easiest and the most logical choice is to empower the already existed nominal “Transitional Unity Government” since it has some legitimacy both domestically and internationally. To achieve this goal all stake holders in the Somalia stability should help it rebuild a robust military power equipped with 21^st century military hardware that is superior to the rest of other groups. If the so-called government doesn’t have superiority to other groups its legitimacy and power would easily be challenged. Also, if the government doesn’t have a confidence to win a conflict it will safe its face and avoid conflict at all cost, which may be translated as a sign of weakness and as a result a loss of credibility.

The United States and the rich Arab Sheikhdoms have a stake in the process of tipping the balance of power with the goal of creating a big, strong, and vicious “wolf that can eat all other wolves”, that can impose certain level of law and order without questioning how it has been achieved. The Somali people are ready to pay a big price for true peace and return to normal life. This may sound a Machiavellian concept of the “end justifies the means”, but if we have to pay a hefty price for peace so be it, because these people would die one way or the other  either through meaningless wars, malaria, cholera, TP, hunger, neglect, accidental death, assassination, or just suicide.

 As suggested above, the easiest wolf we can use right now is the “Transitional Unity Government” led by political infants and sometimes naïve leaders who have no understanding or the political will to embark on a radical transformation of the Somali political impasse, however, their weakness can be manipulated by arming them with new ideas, promises coupled with a tangible assistance (particularly military hardware which may embolden them), and full immunity from future persecutions. I should caution though, if the wolf is perceived as a clan or tribe not an institution or cluster of different clans or tribes it may not result the desired goal. Somalis are good at putting spin on things, and they have been very successful at attaching tribe or clan to every initiative both good and bad, so we shouldn’t fall into their trap. All interested groups must strive to maintain the clan or tribe balance of the wolf, and to create cohesive group.

However, the best wolf is the extremely secretive and the less known group of “Al-Shabaab” or the “Youth”. This group has both the motivation and discipline necessary to dominate other groups. Al-Shabaab has a history of restoring peace with great brutality and exact measures, which are key qualities for complete dominance. In addition, unlike the Transitional Unity Government this group is more united and future splinter groups are unlikely to occur but their desires and ultimate motivations are still vague apart from the usual lip service of implementing Shari’ a law. I think, if they want power and control they should articulate their position better and clear all suspicions held by both the Somali people and the international community. If they succeed in doing that, they would be in a position to garner wide support and attain complete control in Somalia.

The Somalis don’t care who is in charge at this time, and came to the conclusion of “ Hadba ninkii hooyadey qaba waa adeerkey”,( meaning whoever get married my Mom is always my step father), which is a sign of political apathy and exhaustion. They aren’t looking for a fair solution but an exit solution from the misery. I am a true believer of the old Somali saying, “ Soomali waa ishii qaate”, which means Somalis are masters of adaptability, if they perceive force they would conform, if they detect weakness they would exploit, lets show them some force and hope they respect.

Prof. Abdirizak  Hassan

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