Why the Political Stalemate Persists in Somalia

SOMALI CAUSE POSITION PAPER

The formation of the power sharing Transitional Unity Government of Somalia (TUG) in January 2009 and the election of President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed have instilled a glimmer of hope in the hearts of many Somalis. Many hoped that Mr. Ahmed who as a former leader of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) presided over the most peaceful six months Somalia has seen in nearly two decades would lead the battered country to the sorely needed peace and stability. That hope is fading fast as some of his former allies in the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) oppose his new government.

The main antagonistic groups, Al Shabab and Hisbul Islam, are demanding the withdrawal of all foreign troops in Somalia including the Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers. The armed opposition groups are further demanding the introduction of Islamic Sharia law (a demand to which the government publicly agreed to) to replace the country’s constitution while they continue to violently undermine the authority of the new government and wage a ruthless armed campaign to take over many towns and cities in  central and southern regions of Somalia. 
 
Reminiscent of the atrocities committed by the Ethiopian troops during their invasion and occupation of Somalia, the intensifying daily destruction and damage to the Somali people by the armed opposition groups is drawing stern condemnation from the Somali people as well as from the wider international community. Many now wonder how a government led by the charismatic Sheikh Sharif Ahmed who was hailed by the majority of the population and was poised to succeed in bringing about peace is now in this precarious position of controlling only a few pockets of Mogadishu under the protection of the UNISOM peacekeeping force. And how the armed opposition groups, led by Al Shabab and Hisbul Islam, succeeded in controlling many areas in southern and central regions in Somalia, despite being viewed as practicing an extreme interpretation of Islam, a version which many view as an anathema to the one widely practiced in Somalia.

The success of the armed opposition groups can be attributed to many factors. Primarily, they have capitalized on the grave mistakes made by the TUG. An example of such mistakes is the hastily signed and poorly defended maritime memorandum of understanding between Kenya and Somalia, an agreement that purportedly violates the maritime integrity and sovereignty of the nation. By using the governments own mistakes as a rallying point, the armed opposition groups thrived in influencing public opinion, thereby steadily diminishing public support for the TUG. The Speaker of Parliament’s call for a second Ethiopian invasion is another example which the armed opposition groups seized upon and through the effective use of the media branded the government as one that is beholden to external powers and influences.

Furthermore, the armed opposition groups are more organized and more resourceful than the fledgling TUG whose financial dependence on Western powers has often been described as the kiss of death. With coordinated logistical and financial support from individuals and foreign groups within and outside the country, the armed opposition groups continue to pose an even more serious threat to the new government. 

There are equally other factors that weaken the government and reduce its credibility in the eyes of the population. For example, the government's utter failure to address the plight of the millions internally displaced by the ongoing conflict and its seeming lack of concern about their horrendous living conditions has created fertile ground for large scale discontent and is further fueling extremism. Yet this same government saw it fit to travel to Kenya and sign a maritime agreement that neither strengthens it nor benefits the population. The Achilles heel of the Sharif government has become a source of strength for the armed opposition groups. This clearly explains why the TUG continues to struggle to assert its authority beyond few kilometers in the capital city of Mogadishu.
 
With that backdrop, the position of Somali Cause with respect to the intricate crises in Somalia is as follows:
 
1.That every Somali must oppose and resist the armed opposition groups and support the transitional unity government. The TUG is the only legitimate government with a clear mandate to establish government institutions whereas the armed opposition groups do not have such a mandate from the Somali people and are using armed force to de-legitimize the TUG rather than dialogue and reconciliation. However, a word of caution for the TUG, and that is it must strive to garner public support which is needed at this time by showing compassion to its people who have suffered for nearly two decades by making aid and development an integral part of its peace efforts.
 
2.That the government must put its house in order by removing individuals who are known to be corrupt, have been implicated in war crimes or individuals who have no capacity to be ministers from its cabinet positions.
 
3. That the government should develop an effective media strategy to inform the public about the current crisis on a timely basis and to counter the rampant misinformation by the armed opposition. Moreover, it must develop an effective strategy towards those who oppose peace and dialogue. It must also present a well defined plan of action with clear agenda for the country in regards to peace building and development 

4. That the international community must come forward with its pledges to the Somali people and their government to show it is serious about its commitments.
 
5. Finally, and while we acknowledge and appreciate the advocacy work of the United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS), we urge the Office that it must refrain from assuming a leading role and instead play a supportive role to the government. This will go a long way in establishing the credibility of this fledgling government and not undermine its authority

Abdirizak Omar Mohamed

Chairman
Email: [email protected]

647 831-5323 or 202-285-0780

Somali Cause is an umbrella of seven Somali organizations in the USA and Canada that united to: (a) Educate the world about the plight of the Somali people, (b) Provide humanitarian assistance to the suffering people of Somalia, (c) Provide an alternative to the clan and regional based politics, and (e) Safeguard the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia.

Member organizations include:

1. Alliance for Peace and Development (AFPD), Columbus, OH
2. Baltimore Somali Community, Baltimore, MD
3. Greater Boston Somali Community, Boston, MA
4. Somali Advocacy council, Washington DC
5. Somali Canadian Diaspora Alliance (SCDA), Toronto, Canada
6. Somali Diaspora Network (SDN), Fairfax, VA
7. Somali Institute for Peace and Justice (SIPJ), Minneapolis, MN