Wednesday July 9, 2025
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hosts Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (left) and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (right) during trilateral talks in Ankara, Turkey, aimed at resolving the maritime dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, December 11, 2024. The high-level meeting concluded with the signing of the Ankara Declaration, pledging continued dialogue over Ethiopia’s bid for sea access via Somaliland. (Photo: Anadolu Agency)
Mogadishu (HOL) — Turkey’s year-long push to defuse the bitter dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia has reportedly stalled, Somali and Ethiopian diplomats said Wednesday, after negotiators broke off contact over Addis Ababa’s bid for direct sea access through Somaliland.
The mediation, launched in Ankara in February 2024, aimed to calm tensions sparked when landlocked Ethiopia signed a contentious memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on January 1, 2024, granting it a 20-kilometre naval and commercial corridor to the Gulf of Aden in exchange for potential diplomatic recognition of the self-declared republic. Somalia denounced the pact as “an open breach” of its sovereignty and began an aggressive diplomatic campaign to block it.
Three Ankara-hosted rounds culminated in a provisional “Ankara Declaration” on Dec. 11, 2024, in which both sides agreed to technical talks and pledged to respect each other’s territorial integrity. However, those expert-level meetings, held from February 2 to 4, 2025, faltered over the sequencing of maritime access and recognition, and no session has been scheduled since April, two officials familiar with the process told HOL on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed restated his country’s position to parliament on July 3, calling sea access “an existential matter”, echoing a Jan. 5, 2024, speech in which he warned Ethiopia could not remain “an island surrounded by water”. Somalia’s Foreign Ministry responded by labelling the Somaliland deal a “destabilizing land grab” and urged the U.N. Security Council to intervene.
The diplomatic vacuum has drawn in regional powers. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, after meeting Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Egypt earlier this week, promised additional military assistance to safeguard Red Sea shipping lanes—a move analysts see as an implicit counterweight to Ethiopia’s coastal ambitions. Somaliland’s president, Muse Bihi Abdi, meanwhile, vowed in October to uphold the MoU, accusing Mogadishu of forming an “axis” with Cairo and Asmara to thwart his region’s economic future.
Turkey, which trains Somali troops and sells its coveted drones to Ethiopia, tried to cast itself as a neutral broker. “All parties must respect internationally recognized borders,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said when the talks opened last August. Analysts now say Ankara’s failure underscores the deepening realignment in the Horn of Africa as states seek new security guarantees and trade corridors.
Somaliland, a self-governing state since 1991 but lacking international recognition, argues that the port agreement does not require Mogadishu’s consent. Somali officials counter that any deal struck without federal approval is legally void and risks fueling fresh conflict along the Red Sea.
Diplomats warn that the stalemate could hamper anti-piracy patrols in the busy Gulf of Aden and Red Sea corridor, complicate humanitarian deliveries across Somalia’s drought-hit north, and erode the fragile security gains made against al-Shabab. For now, no mediator appears ready to step into Turkey’s place, leaving the region’s most contentious maritime question unresolved.