Pastoral crisis possible if rains fail; rising prices decrease food access
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Extreme food insecurity is emerging in rural areas, following consecutive failures of the 2006 karan rains and the 2007 March to May diraa/sougoum season. Pasture and water are in short supply in these areas, and livestock body conditions are deteriorating. Poor livestock productivity and milk production are restricting the main sources of pastoral food and income. These conditions are the most severe in remote areas of the northwest.
The karan rains started on time in July, although the intensity of rainfall during the month was below normal. Rainfall increased during the first dekad of August, however. A good end to the season will regenerate pastures, improve livestock body conditions and increase milk production. However, even if the current season does end well, it will take several years of sufficient rainfall for pastoralists in these areas to recover, as consecutive poor seasons and an absence of national pastoral recovery programs have severely weakened their livelihoods. A poor end to karan season would cause the current high levels of food insecurity to further deteriorate. Water, pasture and browse would be in severe shortage, and a significant number of animals would die, especially as the dry season progresses until March 2008. The drastic decrease in access to food and income would lead to extreme levels of food insecurity in the northwest and southeast inland pastoral zones. Significant migration to urban areas would occur, and emergency food assistance for up to 70,000 people in rural areas may be necessary.
In urban areas, high and increasing costs of staple foods have led to persistent food access difficulties, and the cost of the minimum expenditure basket is now above the warning level (Figure 1). The impacts of these price increases are compounded by the normal reduction of income for poor urban households during the July to September hot season, when petty trade opportunities are limited. In addition, severe water shortages in and around Djibouti City have caused many families to abandoned their huts and relocate to areas adjacent to other water sources. These movements have further increased competition for already limited petty trade opportunities.
Households in urban areas have decreased their caloric intake, and malnutrition rates have increased among children and pregnant and lactating women. Income–generating opportunities will increase seasonally in September, when the coastal rains begin, but measures to assist these households now (such as cash for food or voucher for food programs) are highly recommended. Emergency measures, including food aid, to assist in mitigating the effects of urban food insecurity have not yet attracted donor attention, and safety nets are needed to assist affected populations in a timely manner.
Source: FEWS, Aug 14, 2007