US report says if war broke out, 12 countries could be drawn into regional conflict.
McClatchy reports that 14,000 Somalis have crossed the border since the start of September alone, bringing the total for the year to 34,000. In all, the United Nations estimates that there are 130,000 refugees among three camps in eastern Kenya. Thousands more are expected to arrive in the next few weeks.
The scene at the main border checkpoint about six miles inside Kenya has been chaotic at times, the limited number of relief workers far outmatched by the numbers of refugees, who must register before they're sent to one of three camps around the market town of Dadaab. Refugees often wait several days in the camps to receive plastic sheets, food and other assistance. The region is on the equator, and as the short spring rains fall many new refugees are spending nights in the open or huddled with other families under wobbly wooden shelters covered by thin swatches of fabric.
Last week, Kenya's government ordered a temporary halt to the arrivals so that screening procedures could be improved after UN officials expressed concern that as many as 30 percent of the new arrivals were "recyclers," refugees coming from the camps to reregister in order to receive more aid.
Reuters reports that both government and Islamist forces dug defensive positions around their outposts after the UIC had recaptured a town that the government had taken on Saturday.
Without firing a shot, pro-Islamist militia backed by Islamist fighters retook Buur Hakaba – 30 km (20 miles) from the government's base in Baidoa – after their allies were chased out by government troops over the weekend.
The standoff has fuelled fears that skirmishes could turn to a full-scale region-wide war as the Islamists – who seized the capital Mogadishu in June – extend their authority across south and central Somalia, flanking the government on three sides.
Reuters also reports that witnesses had seen Ethiopian troops, which back the weak interim government, digging trenches near the government's biggest military camp at Daynunay, near the contested town of Buur Kakaba. Although Ethiopia has denied sending troops into Somalia (a government spokesman will only admit that Ethiopia is training Somali troops), there have been numerous reports of their presence in the country.
Last month the UIC declared a jihad against Ethiopia, which it has long accused of meddling in Somali affairs. The Associated Press reported Monday that the leader of the Islamist forces called upon Ethopians to revolt against their government, "calling it an oppressive regime led by an unpopular minority ethnic group."
"I dare you to come and fight us. Do not just run," Islamic leader Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys said, directing his words at Ethiopia in an address before thousands of Somalis gathered in the capital, Mogadishu, to celebrate the end of the fasting month of Ramadan.
"We urge Ethiopian people, who are not part of this aggression against Somalia, to revolt against and remove the oppressive regime led by (Ethiopia Prime Minister) Meles Zenawi," a senior Islamic leader, Sheik Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, said at the same event.
AP also reports that half of Ethiopia's 77 million citizens are Muslims, and the government in Addis Abbaba is worried about having a fundamentalist Islamic country as a neighbor.
In a commentary for The East African of Nairobi, Kenya, Abdulkadir Khalif writes that while the UIC looks menacing to some, the reality is that they have stretched their military too thin and could not win a prolonged battle with government forces backed by Ethiopia.
Many observers believe that the only committed and well-trained armed unit of the Islamic Courts is the Shabab (Arabic for youth), numbering about 2,000. The rest are either conventional militia who in the past served various warlords or new recruits with no experience or even commitment.
If war breaks out, the Islamists will have to defend at least four fronts - Jubaland, the main road linking Mogadishu to Baidoa, the highway that runs through Hiran region in the middle, and the upper central regions, including Galgadud and Mudug. Residents of Mogadishu will face a compounded problem should the Islamist forces decide to reverse their current expansion strategy and withdraw to the capital. Street fighting may become the order of the day.
Mr. Khalif says the best outcome for Somalia's interests would be a deal struck at the upcoming talks in Khartoum, Sudan, especially if the legitimacy of the transitional government is accepted. The sides could then contruct a nation-wide demobilization program.
Solving the conflict between the government forces and the UIC has consequences for the entire region. The East African cites a report prepared by the US State Department that says if war broke out between the two sides, it could pull as many as 12 countries in the region into the conflict. Some have already started to play active roles.The report – Somalia: Regional Involvement and Implications for US Policy – which The East African has obtained, says that unlike Ethiopia and Kenya – who have some justification for getting involved – Uganda and Eritrea's interest in the conflict has more to do with regional adventurism and the desire to achieve goals extraneous to the conflict.
Tanzania's role in the conflict is somewhat interesting and indirect in that the country was drawn into participating when the US invited it to join the Contact Group on Somalia.
Besides, Dar es Salaam has in the past expressed a desire to accommodate Somali Bantus who are said to have close cultural and linguistic affinities with the Zigua people of northern Tanzania.
The report, prepared by former US Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn, said there had been a significant increase in outside activity and accused some countries of meddling. Several of these outside participants are "playing direct and indirect roles in the conflict and bankrolling either the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) or the Islamic Courts." The other countries involved are Djibouti, Sudan, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran and the US.
A commentary in The Christian Science Monitor suggested that Ethiopia's involvement in the conflict may have as much to do with procuring US anti-terrorism dollars as concerns about its own Muslim population. The Council on Foreign Relations noted last week that the US has been changing its strategy in Somalia.
The United States drew criticism for supporting a group of anti-Islamist warlords last summer who held the capital city of Mogadishu until they were overrun by the Islamist militia. US policy has since shifted, and now appears focused on using Ethiopia and Kenya to contain the UIC's expansion (Stratfor). But the Washington Post charges the Bush administration with doing little to influence events in Somalia, arguing the United States "cannot afford to neglect this gathering threat."