Abdirahman Waberi

Finally, the much anticipated parliamentary elections are heated up into all-out campaigns which apparently seem to touch every square mile of this Republic’s all six regions with considerable intensity. Voter turnout is appropriately projected to be the highest in contrast to all elections held in this infant democracy, notwithstanding its short history of briskly beating all odds against establishing a full fledged democracy and farther strengthening its grassroots based democratic institutions. The last batch of overwhelming number of international observers is due to arrive in the Republic of Somaliland this week for a startling purpose in a region rather known for its continuous volatility and tragic realities; On the contrary in this oasis of tranquility indeed. Anyone here in Hargeisa or other major towns and villages in Somaliland on this election season would never think of those tragic realities in neighboring Somalia, where credibility in governing and institutional bar is unfortunately measured by the extend of death and destruction accused of being caused by those in control of dodgy factions at any given moment, and conspicuously without remorse.

In Somaliland, 246 candidates from the three national political parties are peacefully and lawfully competing for a total of 82 seats in parliament and the chance to make history as members of the first elected representative parliament ever since this republic withdraw from that failed union with war ravaged Somalia. The soon departing body was then elected by tribal elders throughout the seceded republic. It is remarkably breathtaking experience for anyone familiar with the tragic history of how far these people have come and what does it mean to be where it is today to witness this historic practice of civility. Over 10,000 people are in training seminars to man nationwide polling station. The flags of the three parties are all over the place. You cannot miss the passing buses full of particular party supporters on the roads. Each day is allocated for specific party showoff and display of … well, you know the rest.

This phenomenon all started few months back with certain degree of apprehensions throughout the national political scene, generally featuring in lackluster campaign by all sides and with many Somalilanders disillusioned and uninspired by what seemed to be opposition leaders alleged lack of substance in their rhetoric by maliciously attacking anyone associated with the elected president, vice president, government establishments and especially the unelected members of parliament (big junk of them currently nominated by the two leading parties) who were often accused of not being sufficiently capable of passing the necessary regulations or deliberate effective reform laws.

From the outset, and what may well constitute a great campaign strategic move from their part, opposition parties’ leaders expressed concern over the sole use of public airwaves and other media services by the ruling party during the elections and that opposition parties would not get the same airtime or coverage and spotlight opportunities needed to compete. Government authorities anticipated such concerns and immediately divided all public media resources into three equal broadcast times for the three parties under the watchful eyes of the public and the independent Somaliland national election commission.

Yet, a possibly shattering defeat of opposition parties’ candidates in the polls could be the result of opposition party strategists, hence, something to learn from for future party strategists. The biggest strategic misjudge could well be the complete alienation and utter dismissal of recruiting any or all current members of parliament by the two opposition parties, especially UCID party, while the KULMIYE party only pick those few rebellious parliament members who were known for consistently opposing current administration’s policies since the presidential election of 2003 when President Dahir Reyaleh Kahin beat their desired candidate and current leader of KULMIYE party in the last popular elections. How? What the political strategists of the two opposition parties did not read well was distinguishing between the commonly unpopular status of any democratic assembly ‘as a whole’ and the positive esteem enjoyed by most members among their base supporters primarily in own sub-clans ‘as individual’ legislators or candidates for that matter. It is common for democratic societies to give their collective legislators a lower mark in performance while they regard their own individual representative with honor and merit.

Nevertheless, candidates of the UDUB party the biggest among the three Somaliland national parties that enjoys nationwide support base among all clans and supporters of current President Dahir Reyaleh Kahin, himself elected in this nation’s first popular vote just 2 ½ years ago is expected to win a sweeping victory in this parliamentary balloting, but, candidates, leaders and supporters of the other two opposition parties KULMIYE and UCID anticipate otherwise. Each opposition party hopes to gain a respectable number of seats to sustain its viability in future national politics.

Despite opposition parties leaders’ negatively fiery speeches and unconstructive politicking (thanks to a free speech), it is widely trusted that they have not yet introduced (at least in public) their own set of programs on any issue for public scrutiny, except a good old promise presented with gentlemen’s smile that they would of coarse do better then their opponents. Current administration’s policies and statuesque continue to be at the center of their campaign assault. The ruling party’s attack machines and PR masters hit back with their own strategically choreographed campaign discourses. PR performance rooted in all sorts of accomplishments by their policies so far, and accused all those bragging opposition leaders to have had participated in governing in the past one way or the other as ministers with no accomplishments to their credit. Peace and civility in conducting elections seems to be the core message from the UDUB candidates.

All the negative campaign and hogwash was before Somaliland’s Elections Commission, distinguished and renowned for its best effort for transparency and independence expressed concern over the three party negative campaign manners from all arenas and immediately introduced a set of rules and code of conduct. International observers from 15 countries including South Africa, Sweden, UK and other EU members are crisscrossing all over Somaliland and expected to deliver their overall assessment of how free and fair these elections has been conducted and how it measures up to international standards. At stake, is the fate of the system of government in Somaliland after all.

President Kahin, speaking on many occasions in the campaign trail for his party candidates, called the elections "last step in strengthening Somaliland’s democracy and the last huddle for this nation’s membership ticket to the family of nations and a bid for United Nation Resolution for the recognition of this country." He said he hopes Somaliland’s elected lawmakers would "press ahead on his reform agenda and support the awaiting bills that encourage international investments, market-oriented economic reforms, banking laws, property laws and other core plans in his agendas." The coming parliament elections will pit the ruling UDUB party's popularity against critics in the media and in the opposition who continuously try to derail (according to UDUB party loyalists) its anticipation to sweep the polls and emerge with an unprecedented absolute majority through peaceful polling atmosphere. It is three years since UDUB won in a landslide victory in the last nationwide municipal elections that preceded the presidential election. It now faces growing anxiety from rival parties’ politicians, and local rightwing media, who have come to resent president Kahin’s style of leadership.

This is an election where differences in fundamental issues in local politics are not at stake except to choose between the government's stability and opposition’s demand for a balance of power. The full extent of those choices will not be clear until after results from the district races. The two Opposition parties have set a target of winning a combined number of seats in parliament which would give them a clear edge but the ruling party leaders believe that they would win with an absolute majority and therefore a mandate to remain confident of again arguing its populist policies that have won the hearts of grass-roots people, the majority group across the board, and current administration’s ability to push its economic, political and social agendas through the new parliament.

The contest in the regions of Sool and Eastern Sanaag would be an interesting drama to watch and may be challenging for the national elections commission as some of the districts in those two areas are under tough security situation because of the border conflict with neighboring Puntland of Somalia which was accused of being the source of destabilizing elements and terrorism plots. But all parties expect to win more seats in this estranged region even though circumstances are peculiar.

Many Somaliland officials and citizens believe that success of these elections would seal the last chapter of a decade long process to complete the total democratizations of this yet unrecognized Republic that yearns for world attention.

Abdirahman I. Waberi
Hargeisa, Somaliland
E-mail: awaberi44@aol.com